In his inaugural address, President Obama vowed to reach out and engage with the international community including those nations hostile to the United States. However, it is clear that Obama’s engagement with Iran has been nothing short of a failure. In her recent remarks with the Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al Faisal, Secretary Clinton admitted that Iran “has failed to reciprocate.” Instead, Iran announced that it will increase its enrichment capacity and produce twenty percent uranium. The Obama administration is now preparing to move ahead on the sanctions front in its dual-tracked approach: engagement combined with multilateral pressure. While Secretary Clinton visited Qatar and Saudi Arabia this past weekend, her deputy secretaries are traveling around the region in hopes of enlisting countries to put pressure on Iran to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons. James Steinberg will be traveling to Israel the week of February 21st; Jacob Lew headed this past weekend to Egypt, Israel and Jordan. The State Department’s Under Secretary for political affairs, William Burns is also traveling to Syria and Lebanon, hoping to loosen the links between Damascus and Tehran. Considering Syria is Iran’s closest ally in the region and Lebanon is expected to oppose sanctions against Iran, the hopes of achieving any sort of “crippling sanctions” against Iran’s nuclear ambitions are dim.
In addition to seeking Arab support for Iranian sanctions, Secretary Clinton also took the opportunity to focus on Iran’s government and the Revolutionary Guard’s staggering increase in power. Iran’s clerical leadership increasingly has been eclipsed by a military dictatorship. The 125,000 strong force has amassed considerable wealth and reports directly to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Infamous for brutality and oppression, the revolutionary guard has imprisoned and killed hundreds of protesters since the June 2009 elections. To make matters even worse, Ayatollah Khamenei is increasingly dependent on the Revolutionary Guard. According to Jim Phillips, Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs at The Heritage Foundation, when Ahmadinejad came into office, as a former member of the Guard, he placed an estimated 10,000 loyalists, including many cronies from the Revolutionary Guards in critical positions throughout the state bureaucracies and revolutionary organs of the regime. This amounts to a slow-motion coup by the Revolutionary Guards.
When confronting Iran, the United States must take the extremely ruthless governance of Iran into consideration as well as how international pressure on eliminating Iran’s nuclear weapons program might affect the volatile political situation. If the Obama administration has learned anything from its failed engagement from Iran, it is that Iran’s rulers are not to be trusted and action bearing considerable bite is necessary.
Tensions continue to build within Iran ahead of the annual celebration of the 1979 Islamic revolution on February 11. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Monday for unity and vowed that Iran would “punch the arrogance” on the anniversary: “The Iranian nation, with its unity and God’s grace, will punch the arrogance (Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman (February 11) in a way that will leave them stunned.”
Washington responded to the heightened Iranian rhetoric by increasing sanctions on the revolutionary guards and lamenting the hypocrisy of Iran’s ruling regime. On Wednesday the Treasury Department announced that it was adding one individual and four companies to the list of entities affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that are targeted for financial sanctions.
The chief American representative at the International Atomic Energy Agency, Glyn Davies, told the Associated Press that it is “callous and chilling” that Iran’s government, which claims to be enriching uranium for civilian purposes, has rejected the offer to refuel its nuclear research reactor: “Why is Tehran gambling with the health and lives of 850,000 Iranian cancer patients in pursuit of ever more dangerous nuclear technology?” asked Davies.
Meanwhile, Iran’s ruthless regime made it clear that if Iran’s Green Movement opposition forces try to infiltrate the pro-government rallies tomorrow to give them an anti-government spin, then they will be jeopardizing their health and possibly their lives. Iranian police rounded up opposition activists in advance of the celebrations.
Moreover, the Iranian government has stepped up its efforts to block communication between opposition groups and the Iranian people by interfering with internet speeds and blocking text messaging services.
In addition to using street thugs to intimidate Iranian protesters, the regime also has dispatched members of the Basij militia to stage “student demonstrations” in front of the French and Italian embassies, charging the two western nations with interfering in Iran’s internal affairs.
Despite growing threats of intimidation Iran’s opposition leaders remain determined to mobilize their supporters to demonstrate tomorrow. Both sides appear to be girding for a potentially violent showdown.