President Barack Obama’s push for a sweeping health care overhaul is inching toward a full consideration by the Senate and we have learned the left’s plan to add the public option to the Vapor Bill and avoid a filibuster. Congressional Quarterly reported in “Health Bill Nears Tricky End Game” that there is a way for Senate Leaders to start debate on the bill, then add the public option later with a mere simple majority.
Here is the scenario after the Senate Finance Committee finishes work on their part of the Vapor Bill (remember that that Senate Finance Committee has been debating and amending a description of legislation, not actual legislation) Senator Harry Reid will have the task of merging the Senate HELP Committee Bill and the Senate Finance Committee description of legislation being completed later this week. As the AP reported yesterday, this is no easy task.
Senator Reid will write the Vapor Bill with either no public option or one that goes into effect after the insurance industry does not meet certain benchmarks. This is called the public option “trigger.” Senator Reid will have to have a product that would keep together a 60 vote majority to prevent a filibuster of the bill and many health care vote counters don’t see 60 votes supporting proceeding to an Obamacare bill containing an expensive pubic option. Senator and the American public will finally get to see the Vapor Bill and the starting point for an Obamacare debate in the Senate when Senator Reid releases his draft Amendment, that he intends on adding to a House passed tax bill.
To get the measure on the floor, Senator Reid will have to use an unusual procedure. As The Foundry has reported last week, “Senator Reid will have to move to proceed to a House passed tax measure to avoid a “Blue Slip” problem. The term blue slip describes the procedure the House uses to stop the Senate from originating a tax bill. The Constitution states “All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives.” It is the most likely that the Reid will move to proceed to H.R. 1664 The AIG Bonus Bill.
A Senator who wants to add a public option to the bill will offer an amendment to the legislation and then it will be called up for consideration. Reid will then, purposely not take any action on that Amendment, and he will file cloture on the legislation. The cloture vote will be a 60 vote threshold to end debate on a bill that does not contain the public option. After cloture is invoked, the public option, and any other very controversial matters that are deemed “Germane to the bill,” can be added to the bill with a simple majority. Translated into English that means that many moderates in the Senate can vote for cloture on Obamacare without the public option and it can be added after a filibuster is ended.
It is possible to get a public option added to the Vapor Bill, a bill the American people and most Senators, have yet to see, with a simple majority.
President Barack Obama’s push for a sweeping health care overhaul edged closer to a major victory in the Senate Finance Committee. Early next week, the Senate Finance Committee will vote on final passage on the “Vapor Bill” being debated and marked up in Committee. The term “Vapor Bill” is used to describe the legislation, because the Senate Finance Committee has been debating the outline of a bill and not actual bill text in Committee. Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY) offered an amendment to allow a reading of the bill for 72 hours before final passage, so that members could read the bill they were voting upon, yet liberals in the committee blocked this amendment. We have mapped out one scenario for Senate consideration before, but we now have more details on the secret plan to pass Obamacare.
The Senate floor debate on health legislation could start as early as next week, but more likely they will consider Obamacare starting on October 13th. The Senate Finance Committee has been held up and will not have a final vote on the Committee bill until next Tuesday, therefore the Senate will have to wait another week before the debate starts.
Here is what we know. Sources on K Street and on Capitol Hill have confirmed the following scenario:
- Senate staffers from the Senate Finance Committee and the Senate HELP (Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee) are in the process of writing the bill RIGHT NOW that the Senate will consider the second full week of October;
- Senator Reid will have to move to proceed to a House passed tax measure to avoid a “Blue Slip” problem. The term blue slip describes the procedure the House uses to stop the Senate from originating a tax bill. The Constitution states “All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives.” The House passed tax measures that are on the Senate Calendar are as follows:
- H.R. 1664 The AIG Bonus Bill;
- H.R. 2751 A tax bill promoting fuel efficient cars;
- H.R. 2454 House passed Global Warming bill; and,
- Any other tax measure that comes from the House in the next few days. - Senator Reid uses all the procedural tactics in his toolbox to shut down debate and control the Amendment process to get this Senate debate completed by the end of October. They can add the Public Option as an amendment on the Senate floor with a simple majority if they have the will.
Our sources further tell us that moderate Democrats are experiencing heartburn over the cost aspect of the bill. If the bill gets a big score from the Congressional Budget Office, moderate Democrats in the Senate are going to rebel. Also, the “Read the Bill” movement in the heartland is having an effect inside the halls of the Capitol. This bill is going to come back over to the House and they are going to have to consider taking up and passing the Senate passed bill or bounce it back to the House. Worst case scenario, a bill may be on the President’s desk by November 1st, because the House will have the opportunity to take up and pass the Senate passed bill to get it to the President.