Conservative Principles Now

In the midst of a downturn, it’s easy to lose perspective. It feels at the moment like America’s position in the world is slipping and Asia is taking our place. Permanently. On a longer view, that turns out to be only half-right: Asia is rising but America is not falling. With sound policies, the U.S. will be by far the world’s most important economy for a long time. One of those sound policies is strengthening our ties with Asia.

To get a better sense of the current situation, go back to the last time American leadership was supposedly headed for extinction. That was the oil crisis, with its stagflation, in the mid 1970’s. Starting with the Reagan Administration in 1980, the U.S. was considered by the entire globe to have recovered and cemented its place at the top. It turns out that, except for a blip in the late 1990’s, the American share of the world economy has been almost the same for 35 years. The U.S. accounts for more than a quarter of the world economy by itself and continues to hold that level even in these tougher times.

That one blip is the Asian financial crisis, where the American share of the world economy rose because the Asian share dipped. The dip, however, was just a temporary setback in a 40-year surge that has taken Asia’s share from below 15% to more than 25%, and still rising. Read the rest of this entry »

Senators Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.) introduced draft legislation of a cap and trade bill with slightly more stringent near-term carbon reduction targets and Kerry’s message was simple: The recession worked so well to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, let’s keep it going. Senators from both sides of the aisle expressed concerns about the target but Kerry argued since the recession gave us a head start on greenhouse gas reduction, we can kill the economy some more.

Let me emphasize something very strongly as we begin this discussion. The United States has already this year alone achieved a 6 percent reduction in emissions simply because of the downturn in the economy, so we are effectively saying we need to go another 14 percent.”

In other words, 10 percent unemployment is the new norm. It took a solid year for the United States to reach 10 percent unemployment through the financial meltdown and the housing crisis, let’s keep it there, or make it worse, with cap and trade. Why not be even more aggressive? If the trade off is a 6 percent reduction in emissions for a 3.5 percent reduction in unemployment in one year alone, we could get to a 20 percent reduction in carbon dioxide by October 2011 and push the unemployment rate to 18 percent. Look on the bright side; we’d still be below Spain’s 19.3 percent.

Make no mistake, this bill is a jobs destroyer. Despite attempts to market cap and trade as a “clean energy jobs” bill, net job losses approach 1.9 million in 2012 and could approach 2.5 million by 2035. Particularly hit hard is the energy-intensive manufacturing sector, which according to The Heritage Foundation economists, would lose 1.4 million jobs by 2035. For the record, you won’t hear proponents of cap and trade calling it a “green” jobs bill anymore. That doesn’t poll well. It’s “clean energy” jobs now.

Cap and trade will drive up energy prices so high to force people to use less energy. Consumers will drive less, fly less and companies will pump out less CO2 because people will buy less. But people still need to drive their cars and turn on their lights. All cap and trade does is force people to spend more to use less. The trade off for reduced carbon dioxide emissions is reduced economic activity.

If Obama administration and Congress wants us to be more like Western Europe, we’re sure to be on our way if cap and trade passes.