Despite as many as 100 explosions which killed at least 38 people in Baghdad, Iraqis defied a desperate insurgency yesterday and turned out in strong numbers to choose a new Parliament. According to The New York Times, “turnout was higher than expected, and certainly higher than in the last parliamentary election in 2005. … Sunnis who largely boycotted previous elections voted in force, and an intense competition for Shiite votes drove up participation in Baghdad and the south.” The NYT went on to describe the election as “arguably the most open, most competitive election in the nation’s long history of colonial rule, dictatorship and war.”
The United States still has much work to do in Iraq, but yesterday’s successful election is a major victory not just for Iraqis, but for everyone who wants to see peace and prosperity in the Middle East. Unfortunately there is still at least one nation in the region that is bent on seeing Iraq’s democratic experiment fail: Iran. The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is set to be released in a few weeks, and many insiders fear it is being tweaked to downplay the danger Iran represents to Iraq, the region and the United States. That would be a mistake.
As CENTCOM commander Gen. David Petraeus told CNN this weekend, “Iran has gone from a theocracy to a thugocracy because of the citizens who are outraged by the hijacking of the election that took place last June.” And this thugocracy has responded to internal opposition by doubling down on their nuclear ambitions. Nobody wants to live in a world with a nuclear Iran, but too often we are told our choices are limited between the Obama administration’s do-nothing Iran policy and all out aerial bombardment. There are other realistic and effective steps that can be taken. Specifically, The Heritage Foundation has outlined Ten Steps to a Free Iran, including:
1. Impose and enforce the strongest sanctions.
2. Drop opposition to U.S. gasoline sanctions.
3. Target public diplomacy to expose the regime’s human rights abuses.
4. Facilitate communications among dissidents.
5. Aid opposition groups.
6. Reduce Iran’s meddling in Iraq.
7. Target covert actions to discredit the regime.
8. Modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
9. Expand U.S. military capabilities to defend U.S. interests and allies.
10. Deploy a robust and comprehensive missile defense system.
None of these ten actions constitutes a silver bullet that could dismantle Iran’s thugocracy, but taken together they give the Iranian people a great hope for freedom. That is what makes yesterday’s Iraqi elections so important. A stable and democratic Iraq offers Shiites an alternative model that helps de-legitimize Iran’s Islamist system. Winning in Iraq can be just the first step to bringing freedom to its neighbor to the North.
Quick Hits:
- Secretary of Defense Robert Gates does not see eye-to-eye with President Barack Obama’s nuke-free dreams.
- Responding to reports the White House is considering trying Khalid Sheik Muhammed before a military tribunal, the ACLU is running a full-page New York Times ad showing President Obama morphing into President George Bush.
- Democratic pollster Mark Penn explains why the President should abandon his current health care bill for a step-by-step approach that would attract bipartisan support.
- A Congressional Budget Office report shows President Obama’s bank tax bill would ultimately be paid by you, the consumer.
- According to a new Center for Competitive Politics poll, Americans do still support the First Amendment and the Supreme Court’s Citizen’s United decision.
It appears that Secretary Clinton’s much anticipated meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Foreign Minister Celso Amorim on March 3 resulted in the diplomatic cold shoulder with regard to cooperative action aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
While in Brazil on her Latin America swing, Secretary Clinton made quite clear the U.S. wants to “send a unified message to Iran that they are perfectly free to have peaceful, civil nuclear power. But they are not, under the very agreements that they signed, entitled to a nuclear weapons program. “Her goal was to open Brazilian eyes to the Iranian danger just as Obama Administration eyes have opened recently.
The Brazilian response to international actions to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains negative. Foreign Minister Amorim opposes “pushing Iran into a corner.” If new sanctions proposals reach the Security Council, where Brazil holds a temporary seat, Amorim warned: “We will not simply bow down to an evolving consensus if we do not agree.”
In a press conference with Clinton, Amorim tended to view Iran through the prism of Iraq, downplaying the nuclear threat.
“The alleged idea that Iran is, say, deceiving and misleading and not being very straightforward with Brazil, Turkey and China – all I – what I have to say is that I acted as ambassador to Turkey before critical decisions were made on Iraq. And that’s very much what I heard back in 1998, 1999. I mean, smoke and mirrors – were playing smoke and mirrors.”
Later Amorim admitted that while uncertain about Iran’s true intentions, he was confident more negotiations will improve the situation. “Even if Iran does develop the atomic bomb,” commented Amorim, “– I’m not saying it will do it or does not want to do it or it cannot do it. What I’m saying is that even if they do set out to do that, it’ll be a while.”
The Clinton visit generated one commitment. Lula promised to put Iran’s nuclear ambitions on his agenda when he visits Tehran in May. Perhaps while he is there, Lula can also request a field trip to the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz for a closer look at Iran’s whirling centrifuges.