On the fourth leg of her Latin American trip, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton meets with Brazil’s President Lula da Silva He presides over a Brazil that is rising in confidence, economic power, and global influence but myopic in its treatment of Iran.
The Secretary will have to make a strong pitch to convince President Lula da Silva to be wary of the budding Iran-Brazil connection which might produce sanctions-evading financial ties and cooperation to develop Iran’s nuclear potential. The Secretary’s message is: “with influence comes responsibility.”
Thus far the Brazilian stance on Iran has not been helpful. Brazil’s foreign minister Celso Anorim recently announced he doesn’t believe sanctions will be effective. Lula apparently sees sanctions as a path to military force and ardently believes his country’s transition to democracy and its peaceful nuclear program in threat-free South America will carry weight with insecure zealots in volatile Iran.
Brazil’s diplomatic stance on Iran reflects classic Latin American traits: non-intervention, endless dialogue, misplaced neutrality, and a deep distrust of American leadership.
Unquestionably a democrat at home, Lula appears to loose sight of these values when dealing with Iran and other nations like Cuba and Venezuela. Insightful critics like Foreign Policy’s editor Moises Naim ask why a man who was once jailed by Brazil’s military regime as a labor and democracy activist can as president side with the jailers and oppressors of Iran.
Although an uphill struggle, Secretary of State Clinton needs to make it clear to Lula that the volatile combination of a budding military dictatorship, theocratic repression, support for terrorism, and nuclear weapons ambitions make Iran the most imminent threat to world peace in 2010.
Yesterday in Tehran’s Azadi Square, hundreds of thousands of Iranians turned out to listen to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s speech marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Ahmadinejad did not disappoint the adoring crowd, defiantly announcing that Iran had become a “nuclear state,” adding: “The Iranian nation is brave enough that if one day we wanted to create an atomic bomb, we would announce it publicly and would create it.”
But the Iranian nation is not nearly as unified behind the current regime as yesterday’s production was meant to show. The supporters in Azadi Square had actually been bussed in by the regime from around the country. For weeks before the anniversary, the government had arrested students, photographers and journalists in an effort to disrupt the Green Movement which had successfully organized mass opposition demonstrations last year following Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent reelection. The government also slowed Internet service and shut down some social networking services to disrupt opposition communications. But even that wasn’t enough. When the Green Movement did manage to stage smaller counter-demonstrations, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia fired tear gas and beat them with clubs until the crowds dispersed.
And Ahmadinejad’s nuclear claims also might not be all they are cracked up to be. Former U.S. officials and independent nuclear experts tell The Washington Post that Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz has experienced declining output levels due to possible technical problems and possibly sabotage. Ahmadinejad’s “nuclear state” shows that the regime is determined to push ahead with its nuclear program despite international opposition. And it is clear that Iran continues to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium, which it could use to build a nuclear weapon.
That is a nuclear weapon which, coupled with Iran’s growing ballistic missile capability, could annihilate Israel. And Ahmadinejad did not ignore Israel on Tehran’s 31st anniversary. In a call to Syrian leader Bashar Assad, he warned Israel against attacking Syria, Lebanon or elsewhere in the region. Ahmadinejad’s phone call is a pointed signal to Israel that if it launches a preventive strike at Iran’s nuclear program, then Tehran will order Hezbollah to launch terrorist and rocket attacks against Israel. As Heritage scholar James Phillips has detailed, an Israeli strike on Iran would have serious implications for U.S. national security.
It is far past time for the Obama administration to admit its “don’t rock the boat” approach to the Iranian regime has failed. The Obama administration’s efforts to seek sanctions through the United Nations are a nice thought, but considering guaranteed opposition from China and Russia, any realistic strategy must also look outside the United Nations. Washington therefore must think outside the U.N. box and press its allies and other countries to impose stronger sanctions outside the U.N. framework. Iran would be hard hit by bans on foreign investment, gasoline exports, trade with firms affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and other measures undertaken by the European Union, Japan, India, the Gulf Cooperation Council or other countries.
The Obama administration should also take a lesson from Ronald Reagan and step-up its public diplomacy efforts to support the Green Movement. The U.S. government should announce that regime change is official U.S. policy, step-up support for Radio Free Iran, and continue to work with Iranians abroad setting up pro-democracy Web sites. The administration’s current course is heading to a dangerous place. The President cannot keep doing the bare minimum and hope the Iranian regime plays nice.
Quick Hits:
- According to the Wall Street Journal forecasting survey, about a quarter of the 8.4 million jobs eliminated since the recession began won’t be coming back.
- According to the Associated Press, there is one small problem with the “bipartisan” Obama’s Second Stimulus emerging from the Senate: It won’t create many jobs.
- Despite campaigning on a firm promise not to raise taxes on the middle class, President Obama is now “agnostic” about raising taxes on households making less than $250,000.
- According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, 61% of U.S. voters say Congress should scrap the health care plan that has been working its way through the House and Senate and start over.
- Admitting that the nation rejected his preference for a civilian trial in New York City, President Obama will now decide where to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed, and Attorney General Eric Holder even suggested a military commission was a possibility.