The Guardian reports today that the International Atomic Energy Agency has asked Iran to explain evidence that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, but Tehran continues to stonewall requests for relevant information and drag its feet at the sputtering talks over its illicit nuclear weapons program. According to a dossier prepared by the IAEA, Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of a “two-point implosion” device that could enable Iran to eventually install small nuclear warheads on its ballistic missiles. One European official said that “It is breathtaking that Iran could be working on this sort of material.” The article reported on speculation that the Pakistani nuclear proliferator A.Q. Khan or a Russian weapons expert may have helped the Iranians to master the synchronized high explosive detonations necessary to build the warhead.
This revelation is one more reason, if any more were needed, to doubt the validity of the controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that assessed that Iran had stopped its nuclear weaponization efforts in 2003. If Tehran already had perfected such a sophisticated technology, then it could afford to suspend further experiments while it amassed the necessary quantities of high-enriched uranium, long regarded as the “long pole in the tent” and the most challenging aspect of building a nuclear weapon.
The news about warhead experiments provides further evidence that the 2007 NIE needs to reviewed and updated. Representative Pete Hoekstra has called for an independent “red team” to examine recent revelations about Iran’s nuclear program and reevaluate the NIE assessment. Such a review is long overdue.
Meanwhile the nuclear talks with Iran, which were hailed not long ago as a potential breakthrough, are in danger of collapsing. The Washington Post today reported that Iran is balking at further talks and now insists that it must receive a full supply of nuclear reactor fuel for its Tehran research reactor before it gives up any of its low-enriched uranium stocks. This is further evidence that Tehran is backtracking on its on-again-off-again “agreement in principle” to send about 70 percent of its LEU supplies out of the country. Buried in last paragraph of the article is the fact that Iran has refused to put its uranium enrichment activities – the principal focus of the nuclear talks – on the agenda!
For more on Iran, see: Iran Briefing Room
On a visit to Prague in April, President Obama stated that nuclear non-proliferation would be a flagship policy of his Administration, with the long-term goal of total nuclear disarmament. If he is serious, then stopping Iran’s relentless ambition to join the club of nuclear weapons states must be a top priority. A nuclear-armed Iran would be not only an existential threat to Israel, but a potential nuclear proliferator throughout the Middle East. Combined with its closeness to Hezbollah (Iran is already the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism), the ramifications are unfathomably chilling.
Reports on Iran’s latest gambit, demonstrate that the brutal regime in Tehran remains perfectly happy to engage in the same tried-and-failed negotiations that have been tested to destruction and allowed Tehran precious time to advance its nuclear weapons program. Since the constitution of the EU3 in 2003 – with its policy of unfettered diplomatic engagement – the international community has failed to leverage repeated offers of generous incentive packages in exchange for greater cooperation from Tehran. The Iranian presidential elections conducted in June 2009 witnessed the vicious suppression of Iran’s people including mass arrests, politically-motivated beatings and murders, and systematic human rights abuses. These are not the actions of a nation who wants to play by the rules.
Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently stated that Tehran has already amassed sufficient enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb if Iran further enriches it to bomb-grade level. The time for light-touch sanctions have clearly passed; the U.S. must now work with the Europeans, Japan and other concerned countries – outside of the UN if necessary – to impose targeted and heavy sanctions immediately. As the largest trading partner with Iran in the EU, Germany would set a powerful example to the rest of Europe by imposing such sanctions in conjunction with the U.S., especially to Italy and France who also have significant economic ties to Tehran. It is time for Germany and Europe to put long-term global stability and security before short-term economic interests.
Ultimately, sanctions may not be enough to deter Iran from seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, in which case President Obama will be forced to accept either a nuclear-armed Iran or the use of force to disarm Tehran. For the West, the first scenario should be unacceptable; and even if the second is risky, it can not be ruled out.