The Pentagon’s release of the Ballistic Missile Defense Review confirmed that North Korea could be able to deploy a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile capable of striking the United States within the next decade.
The Washington Times reports that the review expressed serious concern over North Korea’s two underground tests and its attempt to develop a long-range missile.
The Pentagon’s review also highlighted U.S. intelligence’s concerns about the Iranian nuclear program and their pursuit of “long-range ballistic missiles.” The report comes a day after Iran announced that it had launched a rocket into space, calling attention to the regime’s serious efforts to gain this dangerous technology.
The real concern is over how the United States can protect against such threats and ensure a credible deterrent to promote regional stability in the Middle East and East Asia. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has requested $8.4 billion dollars for the Missile Defense Agency. The internal structure of this budget will serve to shift the U.S. missile defense posture away from defending against long-range missile attacks and toward countering short- and medium-range missiles. This plan is further outlined in the Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report.
Despite Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the intelligence estimates that North Korea could reach the U.S. with a missile within the decade, the Pentagon plan to deploy advanced variants of the SM-3 missiles will have “some capability to knock out long-range missile warheads” and will not be ready until 2020.
Regarding the canceled deployment of interceptors in Easter Europe, the Heritage Foundation’s Baker Spring writes, “The plan sets up a false choice between long- and short-range defenses in terms of sequencing, when the U.S. needs to field defenses against both short-range and longer-range missiles immediately.”
Missile Defense to be Tested, but Questions About U.S. Security Remain
Author: Baker Spring
The Missile Defense Agency is scheduled to test its Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptor over the Pacific later this month. The test target it will be directed against is being designed to mimic an Iranian long-range missile attack on U.S. territory.
This test is a valuable undertaking and will serve to educate the Missile Defense Agency and others in the U.S. government about important aspects of what is required to defend U.S. territory against such an attack. What the test will not reveal, however, is the extra level of protection that would be afforded to U.S. territory against Iran by fielding GMD interceptors in Poland, as well as the United States, under the Bush Administration’s “third site” plan. President Obama cancelled this third site option last September.
Unfortunately, the Missile Defense Agency has never been precise in public about the advantages gained for protecting U.S. territory against Iranian long-range missiles from the third site deployment compared to relying solely on U.S.-based GMD interceptors. This goes back to the Bush Administration. To be sure, the Missile Defense Agency pointed out that the third site interceptors would protect both Europe and the United States against such missiles. Further, it has acknowledged that the existing interceptors in Alaska and California, absent the third site interceptors, can provide coverage of U.S. territory against the same threat. Nevertheless, it is fair to state that the Missile Defense Agency saw clear advantages for defending U.S. territory in going forward with the third site option. At least, the Missile Defense Agency said so at the time it was proposed. The third site proposal was never about defending just Europe.
Accordingly, the outcome of this test should not be viewed in a vacuum. Whether the GMD interceptor successfully downs its target in this test will provide only a partial answer to the question of how well defended U.S. territory is and will be against an Iranian long-range missile attack. What policy makers need to determine, as well, is the extent to which an increased in the number and geographic distribution of GMD interceptor deployments will increase the chances of success in countering an Iranian attack.