Despite Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s gloating that Iran is a “nuclear state”, Iran reportedly has encountered problems in expanding its uranium enrichment program at an ambitious rate. According to an article in today’s Washington Post, the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz has experienced declining output levels due to possible technical problems with the centrifuges used to process the uranium. So many centrifuges at Natanz have broken down or been sidelined for unknown reasons that less than half of the 8,700 centrifuges were working in November – a little more than 3,900 machines, down from 5,000 last May.
Experts have speculated that the problems at Natanz may be caused by the use of old centrifuges, poor maintenance practices, and a rush to expand the numbers of centrifuges installed without fully testing them. But Iran is known to be installing a new generation of centrifuges and it could be under-reporting the numbers of centrifuges in operation and their output.
It is unclear whether Tehran deliberately reduced the number of centrifuges in operation to mask its true capabilities or it was forced to do so by technical difficulties. But either way, Tehran’s defiant announcement that it is further enriching uranium to 20 percent shows that it is determined to push ahead with its nuclear program despite international opposition. And it is clear that Iran continues to increase its stockpile of enriched uranium which it could use to build a nuclear weapon.
Over at National Review Online they asked experts to weigh in on the situation with Iran and Heritage Expert Peter Brookes was asked to share his thoughts.
Hey, Mr. President, how’s that engagement policy with Iran working out for you? Not so well, from what I can tell.
While you were busy hoping for a breakthrough, holding fast to the Pollyannaish foreign-policy notion that “if we’re nice to them, they’ll be nice to us,” the situation in Iran has only gotten worse over the last year — and precipitously so.
The Iranians are kicking up uranium enrichment beyond what is needed for reactor fuel; their ballistic-missile programs, which could carry dangerous payloads, are advancing; Tehran is re-arming Hezbollah; and the regime continues to hammer the opposition movement — one which could have changed the dynamic in Tehran but which you failed to support.
Despite missing many opportunities to get tough with Iran since you took office — were you expecting the regime to see the longstanding errors of its ways? — it’s still not clear today whether we have a policy for dealing with Tehran other than hoping for the best.
By the way, hope is no basis for a national-security strategy.
Unfortunately, allowing the Iranian regime to believe it can act with impunity — at home or abroad — will only lead to bigger, more serious problems as Tehran gains confidence and asserts itself in ways inimical to American interests.
It’s likely that the 31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, set for February 11, will give us a fresh look into just how bad things have gotten — and will, in all likelihood, keep getting.
Cross-Posted at NRO’s Symposium