The Guardian reports today that the International Atomic Energy Agency has asked Iran to explain evidence that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, but Tehran continues to stonewall requests for relevant information and drag its feet at the sputtering talks over its illicit nuclear weapons program. According to a dossier prepared by the IAEA, Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of a “two-point implosion” device that could enable Iran to eventually install small nuclear warheads on its ballistic missiles. One European official said that “It is breathtaking that Iran could be working on this sort of material.” The article reported on speculation that the Pakistani nuclear proliferator A.Q. Khan or a Russian weapons expert may have helped the Iranians to master the synchronized high explosive detonations necessary to build the warhead.
This revelation is one more reason, if any more were needed, to doubt the validity of the controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that assessed that Iran had stopped its nuclear weaponization efforts in 2003. If Tehran already had perfected such a sophisticated technology, then it could afford to suspend further experiments while it amassed the necessary quantities of high-enriched uranium, long regarded as the “long pole in the tent” and the most challenging aspect of building a nuclear weapon.
The news about warhead experiments provides further evidence that the 2007 NIE needs to reviewed and updated. Representative Pete Hoekstra has called for an independent “red team” to examine recent revelations about Iran’s nuclear program and reevaluate the NIE assessment. Such a review is long overdue.
Meanwhile the nuclear talks with Iran, which were hailed not long ago as a potential breakthrough, are in danger of collapsing. The Washington Post today reported that Iran is balking at further talks and now insists that it must receive a full supply of nuclear reactor fuel for its Tehran research reactor before it gives up any of its low-enriched uranium stocks. This is further evidence that Tehran is backtracking on its on-again-off-again “agreement in principle” to send about 70 percent of its LEU supplies out of the country. Buried in last paragraph of the article is the fact that Iran has refused to put its uranium enrichment activities – the principal focus of the nuclear talks – on the agenda!
For more on Iran, see: Iran Briefing Room
Iran’s theocratic dictatorship once again has thrown up an obstacle to diplomatic resolution of the nuclear stalemate. The New York Times today reported that Iran has rejected the U.S-conceived, U.N.-backed plan for temporarily easing tensions over Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons program. After initially reaching an “agreement in principle” to export roughly 70 percent of its known supplies of low-enriched uranium, Tehran once again has backed away from the P5&1 proposal and instead has presented a counter-proposal (details yet to be revealed) that is sure to fall short of what is necessary to relieve international concerns over its illicit nuclear efforts.
One frustrated diplomat involved in the nuclear talks with the Iranians was quoted by the Daily Telegraph as saying: “It’s like playing chess with a monkey. You get them to checkmate, and then they swallow the king.”
But Iran, which claims to have invented the game of chess, should not be underestimated. It is outsmarting the western diplomats that it is negotiating with by stretching out the negotiations while it continues to enrich uranium. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has trumpeted the negotiations as a victory for Iran over western adversaries. In a speech yesterday he proclaimed: “Once they told us to stop [nuclear work]. Now they express readiness to cooperate with us in exchange of fuel, expansion of the technology and construction of power plants and atomic reactors.”
Iran also probably still has nuclear chess pieces hidden under the table that it will reveal triumphantly at the end of the game. At that point, with a nuclear weapon in hand, Tehran will declare checkmate – or in Farsi: “shah mat” (“the king is ambushed” or “helpless”).
For more on Iran, see: Iran Briefing Room